Robert Gordon Clark from PiL 54

General Election, London -
All to play for in local elections 2006

General Election results in London are traditionally seen as a reflection of voting patterns nationwide.   Labour's landslide in 1997 was reflected in the capital with wins in 57 out of the 74 constituencies, whilst in 2001, when the Conservatives failed to claw back many seats nationally, only two seats in London turned blue.   

London Communications Agency made predictions in all of London's 74 constituencies this year, correctly forecasting that this election would see a swing to the Conservatives and that, as in 97 and 01, this would be stronger than in the rest of the country.

Labour now hold 44 seats in London, having lost 10 in total, 8 of these to the Conservatives, who now hold 21 seats.   Labour also lost one to the Liberal Democrats, who now hold 8 seats, and one to Respect, who are the only Independent party with a seat in London.   So the Conservatives made some inroads in the capital whilst the Liberal Democrats only gained one seat and failed to take any of their key targets such as Orpington and Finsbury South.  

The results also threw up a number of surprises in some seats:

• Labour defended Joan Ryan's seat of Enfield North from the Conservatives, where the majority was only 2,291 and yet lost Stephen Twigg (Enfield Southgate) who was defending a 5,546 majority.  
• Labour also lost two seats where their majority had been over 10,000: the high profile scalps of Barbara Roche (Hornsey & Wood Green) and Oona King (Bethnal Green & Bow), the latter losing out to anti-war campaigner George Galloway.  
• Liberal Democrat Sarah Teather held the Brent East seat she won in a by-election in 2003, extending her majority from just over a thousand to 2,712.   Many thought that Labour's Yasmin Qureshi, a local Muslim women who campaigned on an anti-war stance,   would retake what has been for many years a strongly Labour constituency.

With 10 MPs standing down at this election, London now has 20 new MPs including the return of Sir Malcolm Rifkind for the Conservatives.  Two of these new MPs were current GLA members - Andrew Pelling (Conservative), who won by just 75 votes in Croydon Central, and Lynne Featherstone (Lib Dem), Barbara Roche's successful challenger. 

Another new MP, Meg Hillier (Hackney South & Shoreditch) was also previously a GLA member while Susan Kramer, victorious in Richmond Park, was the Lib Dem Mayoral candidate in 2000.   Including David Lammy, who left the GLA when he won Tottenham in a by-election in 2000, 4 GLA members have now graduated to the House of Commons as London MPs since 2000.

For developers and planners, the results provide useful pointers for the borough elections next year.   For example, in Hammersmith & Fulham, where there was a 7.3% swing to the Tories in the Parliamentary constituency, Labour are under threat of losing control, whilst in both Harrow and Hillingdon, the Conservatives will feel they can convert minority executives into overall control.   In East London, the Conservatives will also expect to overturn the two seat majority in Bexley, after gaining the Bexleyheath & Crayford constituency and holding the marginal seat of Old Bexley & Sidcup. George Galloway has hinted that his Respect party may take on Labour in Tower Hamlets, the most Muslim and possibly anti-war borough in the capital.   

In terms of next steps for the Government, there will be a review of the powers of the London Mayor, which could well lead to Ken gaining more control over planning and housing.   There will also be a stern debate about London's share of the promised £180 billion national investment in transport, including of course commitment to Crossrail and continued focus on the development of the Thames Gateway.   The poor election performance will, one would hope, force the Government to pay more attention to London than they have over the last eight years and there is bound to be some soul searching from senior London Labour figures.   The Conservatives meanwhile will take heart from their gains, despite increasing their share of vote in London by only a small amount.   The Liberal Democrats will be relatively happy with the consolidation of their seats.    All three parties will feel there is something to play for in the Borough elections, now 11 months away.   

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